| | Subscription Video on Demand
Market Forecast 2023-2028
Global SVoD services reach 1.9 billion subscribers in 2028, in a market worth $171.9 billion | | | | Snapshot Report Summary - - Global services' subscriber counts grow from 738.9 million in 2022, to 1.89 billion in 2028 – passing the total count of broadband households.
- Global revenue grows from around $75.83 billion in 2022, to around $171.86 billion in 2028.
- ARPU remains fairly flat, as competitive pressures build.
- Advertising strategy will attempt to retain both subscriber counts and ARPUs.
- Threat of consolidation is waning, but not off the cards.
Just prior to releasing last year's SVoD forecast, Netflix confirmed its first subscriber loss – of 200,000 subs, or around 0.09% of its total. This prompted a wave of hysteria, and in the year since, Netflix's return to growth and confirmation of its advertising strategy has largely set the market at ease.
However, the current concern is the impact of these advertising tiers on the SVoD growth, as well as the looming impact of FAST. Complicating counting is the fact that we are about to enter a phase where SVoD services have ad-supported customers, AVoD services have subscription tiers, and FAST will undoubtedly start playing with on-demand video. The clock is also ticking until these VoD services have live linear feeds, and Netflix is due shortly to launch its first live stream.
There will be a mess of definitions, and Rethink TV will attempt to provide a unified view of the market in an upcoming report – charting those different segments. For now, this report focuses on SVoD, which has had to battle with a reeling global economy.
Disney and Netflix are now in the early stages of their advertising expansion. Both have chosen to price their ad-supported bundles at a slight discount, to ensure that they can maintain their ARPU via the ads served. In time, we suspect that the SVoD platforms could see significant lifts in ARPU via advertising.
However, neither Netflix or Disney have opted for an entirely free tier, supported by a much heavier advertising load. This is significant, because the issue of account sharing has raised its head in the past year. With free options, SVoD services would be able to migrate a user from an existing SVoD subscription and into a free account with only an email address and basic account details.
This would serve to keep the number of subscribers high, and potentially provide a significant boost, if the estimates of 'freeloader' accounts are as high as some in the industry maintain. However, as soon as a payment method is required, the success of converting a freeloader into an active subscriber plummets.
This report can be purchased individually or included with the full Rethink TV service. Purchase options available here on our website. | | | | | | Rethink TV forecasts core OTT video technologies and applications, explaining how changing business models will revolutionize video delivery. It also comprises profiles of the 100 largest operators in the world, and the technology stacks they use to deliver OTT video content. The service is designed as a tool to increase revenues from OTT video markets and survive the rethink of TV. | | | | Rethink Research has been publishing, forecasting, consulting and 'telling it like it is' in the technology world, for almost 20 years. What our clients most like about us is our independent, non-biased research; regularly picking the brains of industry executives to provide our readers with no-nonsense insights that are impossible to find anywhere else. And, unlike other analyst groups, we don't sugar-coat how tough the future will be. | | | | | |
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